Reading the tea leaves of a U.S. economy reshaped by COVID-19 has sent economic analysts and prognosticators into overdrive. Many see a move away from big cities and into simpler, socially distanced life in small towns. If this happens at scale, it could be a boon to heretofore “left-behind” places in the Midwest and other regions.
Others predict significant drops in demand for jobs with low education and training requirements, driven by automation and the growth of technology needed to operate socially distanced offices, warehouses, manufacturing facilities and even restaurants. A recently released analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia lends support to this idea.
Policymakers can adopt policies to help improve wages and opportunities in jobs with fewer credentialing requirements, for example by helping smaller manufacturers and boosting the minimum wage. But policy also needs to directly address the need for more workers with higher skills due both